Monday, September 08, 2008

Point Out The Bounce

Return of the Maverick? No. Return of the Mac (c) Mark Morrison? Definitely.

Yesterday Rasmussen & Gallup reported new tracking numbers from their polls taken from 9/5 to 9/7 and 9/4 to 9/6 respectively and the GOP convention bounce was looking like it had just started. Rasmussen reported +1% percent lead for McCain with the vote showing McCain at 48% and Obama at 47% with "leaners" included. Gallup shows that McCain is at 48% and Obama is at 45%. While both of these are within the usual %3 +/- margin of error the shocker comes from a new USA Today/Gallup poll. This one puts McCain at 50% and Obama at 46% with registered voters BUT puts McCain at 54% and Obama at 44% with those most likely to vote. That's well outside of the margin of error and, even though it could be an outlier, is very good news for the McCain campaign. This shows that the GOP is finally and definitively accepting McCain as their nominee and with the selection of Gov. Sarah Palin as VP, they are also energized.

So what can McCain do to keep this roll going? Simple. Stay on message and continuously hammer Obama on his experience compared to Palin's. Everyone, including me, thought that it was a lost argument, but from what I've seen at their convention, the GOP is going to flip it and bounce it so that they make even more of an experience argument. If they can get Obama on track to start going hard at Palin more than McCain, this will bring McCain's positive rating up because he's out of the fray. Joe Bidden needs to start making national news and quick with his attacks at on Palin AND McCain because it seems like McCain & Palin are double teaming Obama with no regard.

If they want to get the momentum back the Democrats REALLY need to grow some cojones and start going at them harder. While themes of "Hope" and "Change" are wonderful, the other side is going to go way down into the mud, and sometimes through the sewers, and won't bat an eye. They'll toss around the words Muslim and Terrorist and this is how the GOP gets points without saying one positive thing about themselves. McCain will continue to hammer Obama on Obama's negatives, and while Obama can laugh it off in those town meetings, the truth of the matter is, people who only watch local news are not getting to see that. He and his posse has got to grow a pair and start firing back harder and more often. Now that the conventions are over the accusations are going to be flying at a breakneck speed and I expect them to be 70% GOP to 30% Dem. That's how they win elections and that's how their going to try to win this one.

Once the GOP convention bounce dissipates (in about a week or so) we'll see where we stand. Remember at this point after the conventions in 2004 Bush lead ALL polls and did so until his victory against Kerry (source). Although Obama is a much stronger candidate than Kerry, if we see this trend with McCain, Democrats should start biting their nails.

In related news, I've just come across this video. Here's an African American kid claiming to be the real father of Bristol Palin's baby. Of course this is YouTube so the kid has not been vetted. He's also a musician so he might just be trying to get his career jump started so take this with a grain of salt. One thing to remember, even if this kid is telling the truth (and he does sound extra sincere about it), I don't think Bristol is due to give birth before the election so this will probably have little to no effect. Nevertheless, I'd have to say this is somewhat believable.

And I'm out...

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